Russia, arms control and non-proliferation
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if his claim is true, this is not likely to give more than a temporary advantage as new US weapons are
deployed over the next few years.
Nuclear weapons outside the scope of arms control restrictions
A large share especially of Russia's nuclear
arsenal remains outside the scope of New
START, which only applies to deployed strategic
nuclear warheads and their carriers. Both sides
have large numbers of non-deployed weapons,
although these are of lesser concern as they are
not available for immediate use and could not
therefore be launched during the initial and
probably decisive stages of a nuclear conflict.
Russia is particularly strong in the non-strategic
category, where it has almost 10 times more
weapons than the US. Little is known about
China's non-strategic arsenal, but if it exists, it is
likely
to be still smaller (see Figure 3).
Some observers have expressed doubts that
non-strategic weapons could seriously threaten
NATO, arguing that they are mostly intended for
limited military targets at short distances. In any
case, Russia's advantage in this respect is offset
by NATO's conventional strength, for example in
precision-guided missiles. However, non-strategic weapons could also cause serious damage to
civilian targets at longer distances, especially if mounted on the intermediate-range missiles that
Russia is accused of developing. The US therefore has a strong
interest in ensuring that a future
nuclear arms control agreement to replace New START should include limits, or at least some
provisions for transparency, in this area.
New START restricts not only the number of deployed nuclear warheads, but also the total number
of weapons that carry them: intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles,
and heavy bombers. Hence, the intercontinental ballistic missiles used to launch the Avangard
system arguably fall within the scope of the treaty. On the other hand, it is less certain whether
innovative weapons such as Poseidon, Burevestnik and Kinzhal fit the definitions set out in New
START – a tricky issue for negotiations on extending New START or replacing it with a new
agreement.
Outlook
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty: Although Russian non-compliance was the
immediate cause of the US decision to end the treaty, both Russia and the US
have pointed out that
the INF Treaty put them at a disadvantage compared with countries that have built up extensive
arsenals of intermediate-range missiles. The US is unlikely to be interested in a new treaty unless it
includes China, which however has
ruled out participating – unsurprisingly, given that up to 95 % of
its missiles would be banned by such a treaty. Given the lack of interest on all sides in replacing the
INF treaty, there is little chance of a formal agreement not to deploy of land-based intermediate-
range missiles in Europe.
In theory, this development could shift the balance in Russia's favour. In 2018, Putin claimed that
giving up its ground-launched missiles had amounted to unilateral disarmament for Moscow, given
that it did not have the same capacity to launch missiles from the air and the sea as the US. With the
INF Treaty constraints gone, Russia could openly deploy large numbers of the formerly banned
Categories of nuclear warheads
Strategic versus non-strategic/tactical
there is no universally agreed distinction between
these two categories, non-strategic warheads are
generally designed for use against military targets, for
example in battle. They tend to be less powerful than
strategic warheads, and are used at shorter distances.
By contrast, strategic warheads (such as the bombs
dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki) are capable of
causing much more extensive damage, including at
long distances.
Deployed versus non-deployed: deployed warheads
are mounted on missiles or kept at heavy bomber
bases, ready for immediate use, whereas non-
deployed warheads are kept in storage.
Both the US and Russia have large numbers of
warheads that, though still intact, have been retired
from service and are scheduled to be dismantled.